There’s something deeply satisfying about watching expert manipulators get played at their own game.
Netanyahu and Putin thought Trump’s return meant a green light for their ambitions. They bet big on a Trump presidency. Netanyahu with his congressional pandering and Mar-a-Lago visits, Putin with his backchannel support. Both expected Trump 2.0 would let them run wild with ethnic cleansing and genocide in their respective targets.
But they misjudged Trump’s uncanny ability to avoid all strategic thought in pursuit of shameless tacky self-enrichment at every turn.
Netanyahu Going From VIP to Persona Non Grata
Netanyahu broke a cardinal rule of Trump’s world: never cross him publicly. After congratulating Biden in 2020, he earned Trump’s profane dismissal. To repair the damage, Netanyahu’s team practically read love letters at Mar-a-Lago. I would have been embarrassed for them, but I am incapable of feeling embarrassed for war criminals.
The gamble failed spectacularly.
Since taking office, Trump has left Netanyahu out in the cold. His May 2025 Middle East tour this week skipped Israel entirely while courting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. The message? Gulf money talks louder than decades of alliance, especially discarded second-rate luxury planes that couldn’t be sold for four years.
The ultimate betrayal for Netanyahu? Trump opening nuclear talks with Iran (Israel’s existential threat) while reportedly cutting direct contact and calling him “arrogant.” A rare area of violent agreement I have with Mr. Trump.
At home, Netanyahu’s political capital bleeds out. Most Israelis want the hostages home and favor Saudi normalization—positions at odds with his war-first approach. His opponents smell blood, calling Trump’s snub a “diplomatic failure” of Netanyahu’s making. Just deserts, except I wish he wasn’t killing innocent people at the same time.
Putin’s Checkmate Without Moving
Putin thought he knew the game. Trump’s first term had given him room to maneuver, and 2024 promised more space to consolidate his Ukrainian gains. The calculus seemed simple: Trump would pressure Ukraine to fold, sanctions would ease, and Russia’s territorial grab would stand.
Instead, Putin faces a U.S. president determined to broker peace on “America First” terms (whatever that even means). Trump and Saudi Arabia pushed a ceasefire plan that favors Kyiv, leaving Russian ultranationalists fuming. Trump’s envoy presses for talks in Istanbul while Putin drags his feet, trapped between saving face at home and avoiding Trump’s wrath.
For a leader who trades on projecting strength, being pushed into negotiations that undermine his war aims represents a humiliating reversal.
Trump Is “Transactional”
(Let’s be honest. People use the word “transactional” to avoid legal trouble, but what they really mean is that he accepts bribes without hesitation.)
Both leaders fundamentally misread Trump. They thought personal rapport, built through flattery and alignment, would translate to policy support. They missed that Trump 2.0 plays a purely transactional game with zero strategy or thought.
In the Middle East, that means prioritizing Saudi and Qatari billions over Israeli concerns. In Europe, it means a peace process that burnishes Trump’s dealmaker image while maintaining American leverage.
Trump’s February proposal to “take over” Gaza briefly excited Israel’s far-right but alienated Gulf partners and complicated ceasefire talks. His openness to easing Syrian sanctions, which is favored by Gulf states, further signals this realignment that sidelines both Israel and Russia. Although this could be short-lived too.
Today Trump decides Middle East policy unburdened by alliance obligations and heavily influenced by gaudy bribes. His declaration in Qatar that the world is “a lot safer” under his leadership shows a confidence untethered from ground realities and human devastation in Gaza or Ukraine.
The Sweet Taste of Irony
There’s undeniable schadenfreude watching Netanyahu and Putin flounder after Trump’s pivot. The master manipulators outmaneuvered, their flattery not yielding influence but isolation.
Yet this comeuppance carries warning signs. Trump’s willingness to sideline longtime allies risks destabilizing regions already in crisis. The Gaza ceasefire remains fragile, while Ukraine’s future hangs on Trump’s patience with a Kremlin that may outlast his toddler attention span and elderly fragility.
For now, we watch as Netanyahu, once the darling of Republican hawks, faces a U.S. president who sees him as worn baggage. Putin, accustomed to dictating terms, confronts talks that threaten his delirious imperial vision.
Their shared predicament serves as a reminder that even the canniest players can be undone by their own assumptions. In the high-stakes world of global political strongmen, Trump’s return flipped the tables, leaving his once closest personal allies on the geo political stage choking on their sycophantic drivel and I find this utterly glorious.
I will take the small wins where I can.
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